Wall Street trims losses into EU market close

(Reuters) – Stocks cut losses heading into the close on Wednesday of European markets, in choppy trading driven by increased fears about Europe’s debt crisis.

The S&P 500 earlier had fallen sharply to test support at around 1,340 before recovering of its losses just ahead of the close of stock trading in Europe.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 62.48 points, or 0.48 percent, at 12,869.61. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 6.27 points, or 0.47 percent, at 1,357.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index.IXIC was down 10.59 points, or 0.36 percent, at 2,935.68.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Home prices rise for first time in 8 months: Corelogic

(Reuters) – Home prices rose in March for the first time since last July, helped by tighter housing inventory, data analysis firm CoreLogic said on Tuesday.

CoreLogic’s home price index gained 0.6 percent from February, but was still down 0.6 percent compared with March a year ago.

Excluding sales of distressed properties, prices climbed 0.9 percent on a yearly basis. Homeowners in danger of foreclosure, or in “distress”, often sell their homes at significantly reduced prices.

“This spring, the housing market is responding to an improving balance between real estate supply and demand, which is causing stabilization in house prices”, Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a statement.

Of the top 100 statistical areas measured by population, 57 showed year-over-year declines, down from 65.

The closely watched S&P/Case Shiller index released in late April showed a rise in U.S. single-family home prices in February for the first time in 10 months, with a gain of 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

(Reporting By Leah Schnurr; Editing by Leslie Adler)

KPN says America Movil’s $4.2 billion move is pitched too cheap

(Reuters) – Dutch telecom group KPN NV (KPN.AS) hit back at a surprise stakebuilding attempt by Mexico’s America Movil (AMXL.MX), saying it was substantially undervalued by the 3.2 billion euros ($4.2 billion) plan designed to give the Mexican group a base for possible European expansion.

America Movil, the telecoms group controlled by tycoon Carlos Slim, is seeking a stake in KPN of up to 28 percent and sees it as a long-term investment that would give it a presence in Europe at a time when the Mexican group has run out of opportunities to expand at home.

But KPN said the offer was pitched too low. “KPN is of the opinion that 8 euros per ordinary KPN share substantially undervalues the company,” it said in a statement on Tuesday. “KPN will seek further clarification as to America Movil’s intentions … In the meantime, KPN will explore all strategic options.”

The deal, which if successful could give America Movil seats on KPN’s supervisory board, would also grant it a presence in Germany, where KPN has been trying unsuccessfully for years to merge its E-Plus unit with Telefonica-owned (TEF.MC) O2 Germany.

KPN shares surged more than 20 percent to their highest since early April, bouncing from a seven-year low set earlier this month.

Yet for KPN, the entry of Slim as a major investor will not solve the structural problems it has been grappling with, including tough competition in its home market and a lack of critical scale in the foreign markets where it remains.

America Movil, which has already built up a 4.8 percent stake in KPN by buying shares in the open market, is the biggest mobile operator in Latin America and a major cash cow for Slim.

The Mexican tycoon, ranked by Forbes magazine as the world’s richest man, has built his empire by purchasing troubled companies and turning them around.

“America Movil is a long-term investor, we think if the company (KPN) executes (its strategy) well, it will perform well,” Carlos Garcia Moreno, America Movil CFO, told reporters on Tuesday, adding there was scope to cooperate in areas like roaming, content, marketing and procurement.

Moreno said it was too early to say whether America Movil would do any other deals in Europe, but suggested KPN would allow it to get a closer look at European markets.

“KPN is the target for our first investment. Europe is facing some times which are economically challenging. We have a long-term investment horizon. We’ve taken our time. This one seems to make a lot of sense,” Moreno told reporters.

Moreno said the Mexican company had few opportunities to expand in Latin America, while Europe appeared attractive because of a similar cultural identity.

Some analysts said the approach could be a prelude to a full takeover offer.

“We believe the 28 percent stake could be a first step to try to gain full control of KPN,” SNS Securities said in a research note. “Buying an incumbent operator is politically not without risk, which may explain the cautious approach of first acquiring a 28 percent stake.”

One investment banker involved in the telecom sector said Slim had been looking to invest in Europe for several years.

“What they achieved today really matches their strategy, as they always wanted to start with a moderate investment and see what happens,” the banker said.

“It would make no sense for Slim to make a full bid for KPN right now. Instead, it is very shrewd from a non-European company to start with a minority stake and increment it over time … From Slim’s perspective, the stock is cheap and it’s a good asset.”

VERY LOW PRICE

One European telecoms executive said the move was an inexpensive way for America Movil to enter Germany, where E-Plus is the second-smallest player. “You get Germany at a very, very low price,” he said.

He added the entry of Slim as a major shareholder would almost certainly end any remaining ambitions for a merger of E-Plus and O2, whose parent Telefonica is a major rival to America Movil in Latin America. “If I was Carlos Slim I wouldn’t buy 28 percent of KPN in order to get rid of E-Plus.”

Shares of KPN, which traces its origins back to the Dutch government’s construction of telegraph lines in 1852, hit a seven-year low earlier this month, traded up 17.1 percent at 7.592 euros by 1533 GMT. America Movil stock was down 6 percent at 17.54 pesos, after touching a six-month high on Monday.

KPN, which has 45 percent market shares in the Netherlands in fixed line and mobile, posted coreearnings of 5.1 billion euros in 2011 and free cash flow of 2.45 billion.

But the company has been hit by a string of problems under Chief Executive Eelco Blok, a keen sailor and KPN-lifer who took the helm in April 2011, and has faced criticism from analysts, regulators, politicians and the public.

Analyst Ulrich Rathe at brokerage Jefferies in London noted KPN had underperformed the sector on a total return basis by 29 percent over the past year. “That is relative to a sector which has suffered a lot,” he said.

KPN has been struggling to reverse a decline in revenue, profit and market share in its fixed-line and mobile operations as it faces intense competition on its home turf. Its chief financial officer unexpectedly quit in January, citing disagreements over internal governance.

KPN and other mobile phone operators in the Netherlands are under antitrust investigation for possible price-fixing, while the local telecoms regulator put KPN under close supervision in December saying it may have broken the law to the detriment of consumers and competitors.

Another potential negative is that the Netherlands may get a fourth mobile operator at the next auction of mobile licenses later this year, since the regulator has set aside a chunk of spectrum at a low price for a new entrant.

Further competition could mean KPN’s mobile business in its key home market will become structurally less profitable.

Under pressure from shareholders to improve performance, KPN has started to look at divestments including the possible sale of its Belgian subsidiary.

Sources familiar with the company’s plans say KPN is mulling the sale of BASE, Belgium’s smallest operator, and wants 1.8 billion euros for it.

Earlier this month, Der Spiegel reported that E-Plus was in early talks to sell thousands of cell phone towers to a financial investor to raise funds for network expansion.

Those divestments could be put on hold if America Movil wants to use KPN as a foothold for expansion in Europe, one person familiar with KPN’s thinking said.

MERGER TARGET

KPN has been rumored as a takeover or merger target in the past, most recently in September 2011 when Belgacom (BCOM.BR) said a merger with KPN could make sense.

The Dutch firm has snubbed three bid attempts, KPN’s former chief executive Ad Scheepbouwer said last year, but he declined to give names of the companies involved.

Spain’s Telefonica has been most often cited as a possible buyer of KPN. The two firms held merger talks in 2000 which collapsed after KPN said it felt the Telefonica board was not committed to the proposed link-up.

A source familiar with KPN’s M&A talks said it had continued to seek tie-ups or strategic investors to boost its performance, including Chinese telecoms companies.

KPN is struggling to hold on to its market share as it invests in infrastructure in the Netherlands. As part of a major cost-reduction plan it aims to shed between 4,000 and 5,000 full time jobs, or up to 16 percent of the total, by the end of 2013.

America Movil, which said it already owns 4.8 percent of KPN’s stock, said it would make a cash offer of 8 euros per share for the additional stock, a premium of roughly 23 percent to Monday’s closing KPN share price.

Maurice Mureau, asset manager at Dutch brokerage and asset management firm Keijser Capital, said he did not expect a rival offer to appear.

“At this price, this is a good moment to say goodbye to KPN shares, so we are selling half our stake this morning,” Mureau said. “KPN’s business model is under pressure. They are losing share in the traditional telephone market and the new business in internet is not fully compensating for that.

“The competition is only getting tougher and things could go any direction,” Mureau added. “All-in-all a good time to get out of the stock.”

Deutsche Bank is advising America Movil on the KPN deal, which would also involve handling the tender offer if that goes ahead, while Clifford Chance is advising it on legal matters.

The deal would be the second major move on a Dutch company in recent months by an acquirer based in the Americas, after United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N) announced plans to buy TNT Express NV (TNTE.AS) for 5.2 billion euros.

Previous Mexican investments in the Netherlands include a deal sealed in February for plastic pipe maker Mexichem (MEXCHEM.MX) to buy Wavin (WAVIN.AS) for 531 million euros.

($1 = 0.7663 euros)

(Aditional reporting by Anthony Deutsch; with Robert-Jan Bartunek in Brussels; Sophie Sassard and Georgina Prodhan in London; Ioan Grillo, Tomas Sarmiento and Dave Graham in Mexico City; Editing by Richard Pullin and David Holmes)

What Happened to First Solar?

(Technology Review Magazine)- A little over a year ago, First Solar seemed to be on top of the world. The U.S. solar giant was one of the largest and most successful solar-panel manufacturers, and solar power plant builders, in the world. It had the lowest manufacturing costs in the industry and the highest market capitalization of any solar-panel manufacturer.

Just a year on, the company’s situation is starkly different. Last month, First Solar announced it would close one factory in Germany, shut down four other production lines, and lay off 30 percent of its workers. Last week, it announced a massive loss of $450 million for the first quarter of 2012. The announcement surprised analysts, who had predicted the company would have significant profits. Last fall, First Solar’s CEO abruptly left the company, and its image suffered after it had to replace thousands of defective solar panels. Its stock has plummeted from about $130 a year ago to $17 on Friday.

“First Solar is definitely having pains right now. It’s not the runaway leader it’s been in past years,” says M.J. Shiao, senior analyst for solar markets at GTM Research.

First Solar isn’t the only solar company in financial trouble. Over the last several years, solar-panel manufacturers in China have built new factories and flooded the market with inexpensive solar panels, driving down prices, which fell by 50 percent last year alone. That has reduced or eliminated profit margins and forced some solar-panel companies out of business.

First Solar’s costs are still among the lowest, if not the lowest, in the industry. But it has trouble competing for two main reasons. First, some other solar-panel companies are selling at cost or below cost, possibly enabled by government support. “When crystalline-silicon solar-panel prices were still in the range of $1.50 to $2 per watt, First Solar, with its lowest cost of production—about 70 to 80 cents a watt—was doing very well. Now the prices for silicon panels have crashed to under $1 a watt,” Shiao says.

Second, its thin-film, cadmium-telluride solar panels are less efficient than the silicon solar panels made by manufacturers in China. This limits the kind of applications the panels are good for—for example, they aren’t well-suited to roofs, where space is at a premium. The lower efficiency isn’t as much of a disadvantage for large, ground-mounted installations, where space is typically less expensive, and where First Solar has found its niche. But even for this application, First Solar has had to charge far less than its competitors, something it can no longer do.

Yet, despite everything, some analysts say that First Solar’s prospects look good in the long term. Companies selling at or below cost probably can’t do that forever and stay in business. If First Solar outlasts them, its lower costs will again become a competitive advantage.

First Solar says that in the near term, it can count on customers who don’t want to buy solar panels from companies that are selling at too low of a price, for fear that those companies will go out of business and not be able to support the panels over their entire 25-year life.

First Solar also isn’t just a solar-panel manufacturer, but also a builder of solar power plants.  A large share of the cost of solar power comes from things other than solar panels, including designing and building complete solar-power systems and connecting them to the grid. In general, installation is the most profitable part of the industry, and revenues from this side of the business—and the backlog of solar projects that it’s contracted to build (projects that also create a steady demand for its solar-panel factories)—might keep First Solar afloat.

In its earnings call last week, First Solar said it has other advantages over its competitors. It has more experience installing large solar power plants, which is important for guaranteeing performance. It’s also developing technology to make its solar power plants more attractive to utilities. Solar power is intermittent, with power output dropping and spiking as clouds pass overhead. To compensate, First Solar offers detailed forecasts to help utilities plan for how much power the panels will produce. It also installs power electronics that help smooth out fluctuations in voltage and frequency. Yet, although First Solar emphasized power electronics, others are also developing such technology.

In its earnings call, First Solar predicted better times ahead, and emphasized its new strategy of marketing its panels and solar power plants not in places such as Germany, where the industry is driven by subsidies, but in places such as India, where solar power could compete on its own because it’s sunny and prices from conventional electricity sources are relatively high.

Subsidized markets can be unpredictable, and subject to shifting political winds. After higher-than-expected costs for a feed-in tariff in Spain, the government ended the program and the market disappeared. Similar things have happened in other countries. That unpredictability makes it difficult to plan how many factories to build.

Focusing on new markets, at first glance, wouldn’t seem to help First Solar much. The same factors that make these markets attractive to First Solar make them attractive to other manufacturers as well, the same ones it has trouble competing with in subsidized markets.

First Solar does, however, have at least one significant advantage. In places such as India, which are hot and humid, First Solar’s technology is better suited to the climate. At high temperatures, the power output of silicon solar panels drops, but First Solar’s thin-film solar panels fare better than silicon panels. In humid areas, clouds and haze also diffuse sunlight, and thin-film solar panels do better in diffuse light than silicon ones. As a result, the performance gap between thin film and silicon narrows in these places.

Breaking into these new markets may prove challenging, though. Without a government guarantee of a return on investment, as is the case in Germany, it will likely be harder, at least at first, to convince banks to finance large projects, and companies could run into problems negotiating local politics in India.

But if the first large projects are financially successful, that could spur more investment and lead to growth that’s even faster than what’s been seen in subsidized markets, says Travis Bradford, president of the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development. (Subsidies have allowed the solar industry to double in size every two years for much of the past decade.)

“First Solar is saying it can compete in many markets around the world without subsidies,” Bradford says. “That could open up markets that are orders of magnitude larger than the ones we see today.

BY KEVIN BULLIS

 

Petro-dollar windfall could help China’s rebalancing

(Reuters) – A $1 trillion oil-fired trade windfall couldn’t be better timed to help Chinese companies climb the value chain and rebalance the economy of the world’s biggest exporter.

Fast growing countries producing oil and other commodities, are taking advantage of the windfall from the recent surge in prices and buying roughly half of the $2 trillion worth of goods sold by China overseas.

But, more importantly for the economy, they are buying the value-added products that Beijing wants its export-oriented factories to focus on – construction equipment, heavy infrastructure goods and telecom network equipment, for instance.

“Commodity exporting countries have had a windfall after commodity price rises and they are now recycling this back into the global trade system,” Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, told Reuters.

“The silver lining to China’s exports is really the other emerging economies,” she said.

China’s export-led expansion of the last decade has been largely a function of processing trade – importing materials and components for assembling products that are then shipped overseas.

And now the source of value in Chinese exports is shifting.

New orders are increasingly coming from developing economies buying industrial goods to build out infrastructure, products with a large element of domestic added value, using locally-made components that China once imported.

This shift in the trade focus potentially benefits the domestic economy even more as skills and product lines are upgraded to satisfy demand from a new customer base.

HIGHER SHARE OF VALUE-ADDS

Analysts at consultancy GK Dragonomics calculate that the share of domestic value added in processed exports is 30-50 percent, but 70-90 percent for what it calls “normal” exports.

Those normal exports, products assembled from locally made components that China previously imported, represented about 48 percent of the total of Chinese goods shipped overseas in 2011, versus 41 percent between 2001 and 2005.

Add together the effect of increasing the amount of domestic value added to exported goods and the new destinations to which China is shipping them, and it could underpin export growth, jobs and wealth creation for another decade.

“The Chinese government’s eagerness to encourage these trends is thus quite understandable,” a recent GK Dragonomics study said.

Still, Beijing’s likely share of the $1 trillion petro-dollar boost to global trade anticipated by analysts at UBS, after Brent crude’s 14 percent gain since 2011’s trough in August, is unlikely to fuel a surge in economic growth.

Even if China rakes in $100 billion, in line with the roughly 10 percent share it has in the global export market, Asia’s biggest economy remains on course for its slowest full year of expansion in a decade, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting a consensus 8.4 percent growth in 2012.

But more emerging market demand is exactly what will help Beijing rebalance its export-oriented economic model – albeit not necessarily in the import-led way that leaders of stuttering developed economies hope to see.

In fact, building up the customer base in oil exporting countries ensures that China gets back a huge amount of the money it spends every year on fuel – buying in around 5 million of the 9 million barrels per day it consumed in 2011, China’s oil bill last year was about $200 billion.

A study by the International Energy Agency into rising oil revenues on import demand from members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that, compared to the period 1970-2000, every additional dollar spent by China on fuel imports generates 64 cents of demand for its exports.

Analysts at Societe Generale reckon it is this oil-related import growth, driven by the still relatively elevated price of crude, that has helped global trade volumes manage a stealthy sequential gain in momentum in recent months.

“Despite a weak outlook for global GDP growth, there are several factors that suggest the period of stagnating global trade may well be behind us,” they wrote in a report last week.

“Specifically we expect oil prices to remain elevated, suggesting that strong import demand from the Middle East should persist for some time.”

DIVERSIFY, REBALANCE

One reason why Beijing is encouraging this diversification of its customer base to the Middle East and other emerging economies is the unreliability of demand from the European union, where recession fears have reared up once again.

It is growth elsewhere that makes the case for rebalancing higher up the value chain and across geographies all the more compelling.

Research by HSBC’s trade and receivables finance department forecasts an acceleration in global trade growth in the Asia Pacific driven by emerging economies inside and outside the region, with demand flat in Europe and North America.

The bank forecasts 86 percent expansion in the volume of total trade in the next 15 years, but the infrastructure trade component of that will grow by 110 percent in the same period.

Plug into that and China should see its share of global trade jump by a quarter to 12.3 percent from 9.8 percent in 2011 and become the world’s single biggest trading nation by 2016.

It could certainly help counteract the lingering risks to growth from the EU, where Asian aggregate exports fell 5.2 percent year-on-year in March, while still managing a 4.6 percent expansion globally, according to an analysis by Nomura.

“Our assessment is that the economies in Asia ex-Japan are generally experiencing green shoots of recovery, but we are cognizant that they could quickly wilt if the recession in the euro area deepens,” said the bank’s chief Asia economist, Rob Subbaraman, in a note to clients.

(Editing by Ramya Venugopal)

Warren Buffett says buying stocks amid market dip

(Reuters) – Berkshire Hathaway Inc is adding to its shareholdings of two U.S. companies amid a market dip, billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Monday.

Buffett, Berkshire’s controlling shareholder, also forecast record results this year for Berkshire’s largest non-insurance businesses, among them the railroad BNSF and the utility MidAmerican.

In an interview on cable television network CNBC from just outside his conglomerate’s home base in Omaha, Nebraska, he dismissed the dip in European shares after weekend elections in France and Greece.

“It’s going to be very, very difficult to resolve their problems,” he said of the euro zone countries, but he insisted they would do so eventually.

Buffett declined to identify the two portfolio stocks Berkshire was purchasing more of. He said Berkshire spent $60 million buying stocks last Friday would buy more today. It was not clear if the $60 billion was spent on just two stocks.

Over the weekend, Berkshire held its annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, a festival-like event that draws nearly 40,000 people for an hours-long question-and-answer session with Buffett and Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger.

It was during that session that Buffett revealed he had very nearly made an acquisition of more than $22 billion recently, which would have been one of his biggest ever.

The 81-year-old Buffett, recently diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer, spent much of the day assuring shareholders he was in good health.

While Buffett has his acolytes, not everyone was impressed with his performance. Australian hedge fund manager John Hempton, in a post on his blog on Saturday, said the day was full of the usual questions on politics, economics and the like.

“I got all this — and for the most part I got the usual homily answers. (The same questions were asked last year and the year before and the year before that. Answers can be got from meeting notes),” Hempton wrote.

During the CNBC interview, Buffett reiterated his support for Wal-Mart Stores Inc, saying a scandal over bribe payments in Mexico did not change his opinion of the stock. He is Wal-Mart’s fifth-largest shareholder.

(Reporting By Ben Berkowitz; additional reporting by Lauren Tara LaCapra; Editing by John Wallace)

Fund managers struggled on shift from equity funds

(Reuters) – In the midst of the stock market’s giant first quarter, the best since 1998, investors drove up share prices of money managers expecting booming results. But as the results came in, investors headed for the exits after discovering just how reliant money managers remained on out-of-favor stock funds.

Starting on April 18 with BlackRock Inc (BLK.N), the biggest money manager, and running through May 2 with Franklin Resources Inc (BEN.N), investors were disappointed with underwhelming revenue and profit growth. Across the industry, fund customers gravitated away from higher fee, actively managed stock funds and toward low-fee bond and index funds.

“When you have inflows into fixed-income funds and outflows in equity funds that equates into margin and fee pressure,” said John Miller, a portfolio manager for Ariel Fund in Chicago, which owns shares in Franklin, T. Rowe Price Group (TROW.O) and Janus Capital Group (JNS.N).

Through Thursday, shares of BlackRock had lost 9 percent since the New York firm reported just a 1 percent increase in profit last month. Janus has lost 9 percent since its underwhelming earnings report on April 24. And shares of Franklin, based in San Mateo, California, have traded down 5 percent in the days since it reported.

The share movements show how just how hard it is for many investors to judge fund companies based on broad market currents, said Gib Watson, chief executive of Envestnet Prima, an asset management research company. And the quarter’s results provided a stark reminder that the companies can’t count on equity products as they did in the past.

“Investors remained scarred, scared and conservative coming out of the global financial crisis,” Watson said.

Investors fled equities after many were burned by volatility in recent years, but as usual many are fighting the last war. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX finished the first quarter at 1,408.47, up 12 percent from the end of December and up 6 percent from the end of the first quarter of 2011.

Fearful investors missed the rally. Investors pulled $21 billion from actively managed large cap U.S. stock funds during the first quarter of 2012, according to Chicago research firm Morningstar Inc That marked the eleventh straight quarter of net outflows in the high-profit category, which was once the industry’s bread and butter. In all, U.S. stock funds lost $13 billion in the first quarter and $121 billion over the past 12 months.

All other top categories of long-term funds took in money including international stock funds, bond funds, and those that invest in commodities or alternative areas like real estate.

That helped the companies with non-traditional products, according to Goldman Sachs analyst Marc Irizarry. Several managers also looked to impress investors by boosting their dividends in the quarter including T Rowe Price, Invesco and Legg Mason (LM.N), Irizarry noted in a May 3 report.

The higher dividends were “in line with the trend of investors seeking income and flows towards income products,” he wrote.

Shares in several companies have been flat or down since they announced results, driving a decline in the Dow Jones index of U.S. asset managers .DJUSAG since the end of March. In retrospect, the strong stock market in the first quarter boosted

total assets at most of the managers, and that helped bolster fee income. But anticipating even higher earnings, investors drove up shares in big asset managers during the run-up to earnings season.

That only set up companies like BlackRock for disappointment. Shares of the company, the world’s largest asset manager, fell 3 percent on April 18 after it reported a revenue decline of 1 percent to $2.2 billion. Assets rose 5 percent during the quarter but only 1 percent compared with a year earlier.

BlackRock’s problem was that flows went to the company’s indexed funds instead of actively managed accounts that generate higher fees.

Franklin Resources also failed to capitalize on the rising market. Its shares fell 3 percent on May 2 even though it reported a quarterly inflow of $5.6 billion, since the flows fell short of investor expectations.

Flows to U.S. equity funds were just $200 million, for instance, which contributed to an overall flow total that Nomura analyst Glenn Schorr described as good but not great — or, as he put it in the headline of a research note to investors, “Good, but Not Franklinsanity.”

(Reporting By Ross Kerber; Editing by Aaron Pressman and Steve Orlofsky)

LinkedIn raises outlook, beats on profit

(Reuters) – LinkedIn Corp raised its outlook after smashing first- quarter revenue and profit expectations, racking up strong growth from services that help companies find and hire employees.

“The guidance was surprisingly high,” said Ken Sena, an analyst with Evercore Partners. “I think it’s a matter of them being able to use the data they have more efficiently to drive better results for their partners.”

The company increased its 2012 revenue outlook on Thursday by $40 million to a range of $880 million to $900 million.

LinkedIn shares were up 10 percent in after-hours trading at $120.50 from their $109.41 close.

The company, based in Mountain View, California, was one of the first prominent U.S. social networking sites to make a debut in an initial public offering a year ago, whetting the appetites of those eagerly awaiting Facebook’s impending IPO. [ID:nL1E8G3JMT]

With more than 161 million members worldwide, LinkedIn is being closely watched by investors to see if its business model is solid.

LinkedIn shares are up nearly 70 percent year-to-date and are more than double its IPO price of $45.

A combination of international growth expansion and a hiring spree in order to generate more sales are behind the company’s revised forecast, said Kerry Rice, an analyst with Needham & Co.

“LinkedIn has the best value out there,” said Rice about companies seeking employees.

SNAPPING UP SLIDESHARE

LinkedIn also announced on Thursday that it acquired content sharing company SlideShare for $118.75 million in a mix of cash and stock. The service lets professionals upload presentations and share them with others.

The company was started in the living room of former PayPal executive Reid Hoffman, who co-founded LinkedIn in 2002. It makes money by selling services and subscriptions to individuals seeking jobs and companies looking to hire.

LinkedIn reported first quarter revenue rose 101 percent to $188.5 million, besting analysts’ average forecast of $178.58 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The top line results were bolstered by the strong performance of the company’s three units.

Revenue at its hiring solutions division, which represents more than half of total revenue, jumped 121 percent, while it grew 73 percent at its marketing solutions unit that sells display advertising.

“I think marketing solutions is the biggest surprise in terms of how much the numbers beat, given the weakness out of Yahoo,” said Herman Leung, a senior analyst with Susquehanna Financial Group, which holds a stake in LinkedIn.

Premium subscriptions — offered to members for more specialized services — saw revenue increase 91 percent.

Excluding special items, first-quarter earnings per share of 15 cents was well above analysts’ expectations of 9 cents per share.

Net income rose to $5 million from $2.1 million in the same quarter a year ago.

(Editing by Bernard OrrTim DobbynAndre Grenon and Phil Berlowitz)

U.S. sets new rules for fracking on federal lands

 

(Reuters) – The Obama administration unveiled long-awaited rules on Friday to bolster oversight of so-called “fracking” on public lands, seeking to allay concerns over the technology that has spurred a U.S. boom in shale gas drilling.

The Interior Department proposal would require that companies obtain government approval to use hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in drilling for natural gas on federal lands.

The rules would not affect drilling on private land, where the bulk of shale exploration is taking place. Still, the administration has said it hopes the rules could be used as a template for state regulators.

The proposal would also require that companies disclose the fluids used in hydraulic fracturing after completing the process, which involves injecting water, sand and chemicals under the ground to extract fuel.

“As we continue to offer millions of acres of America’s public lands for oil and gas development, it is critical that the public have full confidence that the right safety and environmental protections are in place,” Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said in a statement.

The administration has walked a fine line on natural gas drilling, lauding the potential of the country’s vast shale gas reserves, while stressing the need to ensure drilling is safe.

Critics say shale gas drilling, and fracking in particular, have fouled water sources and polluted the environment. Green groups and some lawmakers have called for more federal regulation of fracking, which is mostly handled at state level.

Shale gas drillers argue that oversight of the drilling boom is most effectively managed by states and say excessive regulation could staunch production that is creating jobs and helping U.S. energy security.

“The bigger priority for us is to make sure we aren’t overlaying a process here that is going to harm the ability of states to continue their regulation of our production,” said Marty Durbin, of the American Petroleum Institute, an oil and gas industry group.

(Reporting by Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by Dale Hudson and Gerald E. McCormick)

How A Private Data Market Could Ruin Facebook

(Technology Review Magazine) – Facebook’s imminent IPO raises an interesting issue for many of its users. The company’s value is based on its ability to exploit the online behaviours and interests of its users.

To justify its sky-high valuation, Facebook will have to increase its profit per user at rates that seem unlikely, even by the most generous predictions. Last year, we looked at just how unlikely this is.

The issue that concerns many Facebook users is this. The company is set profit from selling user data but the users whose data is being traded do not get paid at all. That seems unfair.

Today, Bernardo Huberman and Christina Aperjis at HP Labs in Palo Alto, say there is an alternative. Why not  pay individuals for their data? TR looked at this idea earlier this week.

Setting up a market for private data won’t be easy. Chief among the problems is that buyers will want unbiased samples–selections chosen at random from a certain subgroup of individuals. That’s crucial for many kinds of statistical tests.

However, individuals will have different ideas about the value of their data. For example, one person might be willing to accept a few cents for their data while another might want several dollars.

If buyers choose only the cheapest data, the sample will be biased in favour of those who price their data cheaply. And if buyers pay everyone the highest price, they will be overpaying.

So how to get an unbiased sample without overpaying?

Huberman and Aperjis have an interesting straightforward solution. Their idea is that a middle man, such as Facebook or a healthcare provider, asks everyone in the database how much they want for their data. The middle man then chooses an unbiased sample and works out how much these individuals want in total, adding a service fee.

The buyer pays this price without knowing the breakdown of how much each individual will receive. The middle man then pays each individual what he or she asked, keeping the fee for the service provided.

The clever bit is in how the middle man structures the payment to individuals. The trick here is to give each individual a choice. Something like this:

Option A: With probability 0.2, a buyer will get access to your data and you will receive a payment of $10. Otherwise, you’ll receive no payment.
Option B: With probability 0.2, a buyer will get access to your data. You’ll receive a payment of $1 irrespectively of whether or not a buyer gets access

So each time a selection of data is sold, individuals can choose to receive the higher amount if their data is selected or the lower amount whether or not it is selected.

The choice that individuals make will depend on their attitude to risk, say Huberman and Aperjis. Risk averse individuals are more likely to choose the second option, they say, so there will always be a mix of people expecting high and low prices.

The result is that the buyer gets an unbiased sample but doesn’t have to pay the highest price to all individuals.

That’s an interesting model which solves some of the problems that other data markets suffer from.

But not all of them. One problem is that individuals will quickly realise how the market works and work together to demand ever increasing returns.

Another problem is that the idea fails if a significant fraction of individuals choose to opt out altogether because the samples will then be biased towards those willing to sell their data. Huberman and Aperjis say this can be prevent by offering a high enough base price. Perhaps.

Such a market has an obvious downside for companies like Facebook which exploit individual’s private data for profit. If they have to share their profit with the owners of the data, there is less for themselves.

And since Facebook will struggle to achieve the kind of profits per user it needs to justify its valuation, there is clearly trouble afoot.

Of course, Facebook may decide on an obvious way out of this conundrum–to not pay individuals for their data.

But that creates an interesting gap in the market for a social network that does pay a fair share to its users (perhaps using a different model to Huberman and Aperjis’).

Is it possible that such a company could take a significant fraction of the market? You betcha!

Either way, Facebook loses out–it’s only a question of when.

This kind of thinking must eventually filter through to the people who intend to buy and sell Facebook shares.

For the moment, however, the thinking is dominated by the greater fool theory of economics–buyers knowingly overpay on the basis that some other fool will pay even more. And there’s only one outcome in that game.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1205.0030: A Market for Unbiased Private Data: Paying Individuals According to their Privacy Attitudes